约搏以太坊单双博彩www.eth108.vip)采用以太坊区块链高度哈希值作为统计数据,约搏以太坊单双博彩数据开源、公平、无任何作弊可能性。

Biden’s “Build Back Better” seeks to get back to a semblance of unipolar position, but having crossed Russia’s red line over Ukraine, war has broken out, but it is contained because it is a proxy war where only the Ukrainians are dying, whilst Nato provides the arms.

NOW that the pomp and glory of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is over, and China has held military exercises surrounding Taiwan, what has been achieved other than further worsening of US-China relations?

The crumbling of the current world order is like an earthquake. Initially everything looked fine, then cracks and tremors begin to appear, and events accelerate until the actual earthquake occurs with massive devastation.

The difference between earthquakes and war is that the latter is human-induced and should in theory be avoidable.

The Thucydides Trap is less about whether Great Powers will fight and more about whether it is avoidable. History has rewarded heroes when they win wars, but has seldom praised statesmen who have avoided wars.

History will debate whether the Ukraine war was avoidable. So far, it is a non-nuclear war because Russia warned the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) not to provoke a nuclear situation.

Nato at least understands that the Cold War, fought between 1946-1991, did avoid nuclear war.

,

皇冠现金网appwww.hg108.vip)是一个开放皇冠现金网代理APP下载、皇冠现金网会员APP下载、皇冠现金网线路APP下载、皇冠现金网登录APP下载的皇冠现金网平台。皇冠现金网APP上最新登录线路、新2皇冠现金网更新最快。皇冠现金网APP开放皇冠现金网会员注册、皇冠信用网代理开户等业务。

,

Both sides understood that nuclear war was “MAD” (mutually assured destruction). There were lots of proxy wars, such as the Korean war, where the Soviets pushed China to do the fighting, or Afghanistan, where the United States financed Islamist forces to wear down the Soviet forces.

The Cuban missile crisis was defused when the Russians agreed to remove missiles from Cuba, provided the Americans removed missiles from Turkiye. Both sides decided to back down from each other’s “red lines”, the crossing of which would escalate beyond either side’s control.

The American economist who had the most influence on shaping understanding of nuclear options was Thomas C Schelling (1931-2016). His Nobel laureate lecture “An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima” reminds us how lucky and rational we were so far in avoiding nuclear escalation.

Schelling’s great attribute was to apply intellectual rigour and common sense to very uncomfortable questions. He thought through the unthinkable. A leading game theorist, he understood that all human decisions are interdependent, contingent upon someone else’s behaviour, the most common being “tit for tat”.

But common sense at the individual level does not always work at the global level. Married couples who want a divorce can appeal to a court for independent judgement.

Great Powers cannot appeal to any higher court, not even the United Nations, because they have the veto over any ruling.

Thus the only global rule is that Great Powers must reach an understanding with each other and not cross each other’s red lines, beyond which they will clash.

环球UG声明:该文看法仅代表作者自己,与本平台无关。转载请注明:皇冠现金网app(www.hg108.vip):Crossing red lines to nuclear war
发布评论

分享到:

2 条回复
  1. 环球ug会员开户(www.ugbet.us)
    环球ug会员开户(www.ugbet.us)
    (2023-01-24 06:59:24) 1#

    《真食系列菜单》除了一口气推出10款米其林名厨星级贝果堡,挑战堡类美味极限,还有4款「真食沙拉碗」和5款「真食鲜果昔」。6月18日起在好丘信义店正式独家开卖,所有品项皆可内用或外带,让享用星级料理更轻松方便。你啥时候火呢

  2. 欧博aLLbet(www.aLLbetgame.vip)
    欧博aLLbet(www.aLLbetgame.vip)
    (2023-02-06 04:00:31) 2#

    离不开你啦!

发表评论

◎欢迎参与讨论,请在这里发表您的看法、交流您的观点。